Forecast or alert view
Expected values, their uncertainty, and significant deviations, shown for one specific planning decision.
Forecasting and anomalies
We build forecasts and alerts from historical operating data, tested for forecast error, missed events, and false alarms before your team relies on them.
ScopeOne workflow or several connected applications
Delivery timingDays for a focused prototype, weeks for a well-defined release when access and decisions are ready
How we check itRegular reviews cover forecast errors, false alarms, missed events, and the decisions that followed.
Demand forecasts and exception alerts
An alert is only useful if someone can act on it. We set thresholds around decisions your team can make, then tune them with the people who receive the alerts.
Good fit
- Planning teams forecasting demand, capacity, revenue, or supply
- Teams monitoring many locations or accounts
- Operations where surprises are costly
Not the right fit
- Alerts no one is assigned to act on
- Teams that would treat a forecast as a certainty
- History too short or inconsistent to test forecasts against
What you get
Response rules
Alert thresholds, a named owner for each alert, and agreed follow-up, so alerts lead to action rather than noise.
Performance review
Comparisons with past results and a regular review of missed events and false alarms.
How it works
Decide how far ahead
With the team that will act on the forecast, we define how much warning they need and which errors cost the most.
Compare with history
We test simple methods and more complex ones on past periods that were kept out of development.
Tune the alerts
Your staff pilot the alert thresholds, and we adjust them based on whether alerts led to useful action.
Scope, cost, and ownership
What we need from you
- Time-stamped history and a record of known operational changes
- Someone able to respond to a forecast or alert
What affects cost
- Quality of the history and number of items to forecast
- How far ahead to forecast and how rare the events are
- Alert routing and monitoring needs
Technical scope
- Time-series forecasting
- Anomaly detection
- Simple baseline comparisons
- Business rules for alerts
- Backtesting
- Exception routing
Support and maintenance
The team receiving alerts sets the response thresholds. Regular reviews cover false alarms, missed events, and whether the model still fits the planning task.
Common questions
How do we avoid alert fatigue?
By sending only alerts that are significant, have an owner, and have a clear response, then reviewing whether each one was worth the interruption.
Can a simple baseline be enough?
Often. We test simple methods before adding complexity.